The close of 2025 leaves the markets in an unprecedented situation of strength, with “the stock markets at or very close to maximums, a lot of optimism already incorporated” and the IBEX signing “a completely record year.” However, this euphoric scenario coexists with risks that can test the solidity of the values that support investment confidence today. The main one is global growth: international organizations anticipate that in 2026 world GDP will moderate to 2.9%, a “yes, but very fair” advance, which could become uncomfortable if the United States or China stumble or if problems in international trade worsen.
Added to this fragility is inflation that refuses to disappear. The market discounts rate cuts that are not yet assured, because “if inflation in services or salaries refuses to clearly return to 2%, the rate cuts could be delayed or softer,” something that would harm stock markets that trade “as if the hard part of the monetary adjustment were already history.” Business profits are also under surveillance, after years of high margins and with “labor costs still rising”: after double-digit increases, “the market will poorly tolerate any negative surprise.”
The ethical and responsibility component also appears in the geopolitical analysis: open conflicts and trade tensions configure a world with “a more fragmented globalization, more vulnerable supply chains«, where any escalation can trigger costs and volatility. And all of this is combined with what the expert calls a «partial bubble» in technology and artificial intelligence: «very demanding» valuations that, without the need for a puncture, could lead to «corrections of 15 or 20%» that would drag down the indices.
In Spain, the year has been historic, with Inditex, Santander, Iberdrola and BBVA leading a market increasingly dependent on banking, utilities and quality consumptiond. But this strength has counterparts: lower rates would put pressure on financial margins, extraordinary taxes on banking and energy «it is not possible that the market will not receive them negatively» and the «very fragmented» political environment, with extended budgets and fiscal doubts, can reactivate the risk premium. Even so, the Spanish economy will grow above the European average, supported by tourism and consumption, as long as the labor market does not cool down or the stored savings are not exhausted.
European banking reaches 2026 as the “absolute star of the year”, with ROE close to 10% and strong return to shareholders via dividends and buybacks, although it is already trading at demanding multiples: BBVA is around “1.9 times book value” and Banco Santander between “1.3 and 1.5”. The diagnosis is clear: “the air is already thinner”, the easy climb phase has passed and now the key will be selectionprioritizing entities with the best geographic mix, efficiency and credible capital policy.
In this environment of delicate balance, the recommendation for the Spanish stock market is to prioritize securities with a solid business model, diversification and the ability to generate cash even in adverse scenarios. In banking, it is advisable to be selective and favor entities with better management and geographic mix, such as Santander or Bankinter, capable of sustaining dividends and buybacks without straining capital. In utilities, Iberdrola stands out for its international diversification and its commitment to networks and energy transition, aligned with long-term sustainability criteria. In infrastructure, companies such as Ferrovial or Sacyr offer exposure to mature and growth projects, especially attractive if rates stabilize or fall. And in quality consumption, Inditex continues to be the benchmark due to its brand strength and financial discipline. Overall, rather than looking for quick increases, 2026 requires a strategy based on quality, resilience and recurring return to the shareholder.
In this context, Central banks continue to be the moral and financial compass of the market, but with nuances. The Federal Reserve minutes show a “very divided” committee, with a market “more optimistic than the Federal Reserve itself,” which turns each inflation or employment data into a credibility test. In addition, there is a risk that the Fed’s new leadership will erode its political independence, something that «can take away its credibility and can be bad.»
The final balance is not catastrophic, but it does require values such as prudence, coherence and sustainability: “2026 does not start with a catastrophic scenario, far from it, but with a delicate balance.” If the soft landing is maintained, the IBEX can continue to rely on growth and dividends; If not, a mix of slowdown, less friendly central banks, setbacks in profits and political risk could truncate a historic streak that today is sustained, above all, by confidence.