Traditionally, September It is the cursed month for variable income in the United States. The S&P 500 and the rest of large Wall Street indices usually register their worst numbers of the year, with the second fortnight as the darker section of the calendar. The reason: tax adjustments, portfolio changes and institutional movements that force to square balances before starting the last quarter. But 2025 is being different. Despite some volatility in recent days, a Optimism tone that relies on three key catalysts: The federal reserve type cuts, the improvement of business results and the boom of artificial intelligence.
Now, the Shadow of the word «bubble» always plans. Bank of America remembers that, historically, financial bubbles scater on average 244%. The current one, starring the «magnificent 7», already accumulates 223%. But, unlike the Puntocom Bubble, today there are income that supports the valuations: Nvidia, for example, grows in line with its benefits, unlike what happened with Cisco in 2000. In addition, while in 1999 the Fed raised types, today is cutting them, which reinforces the upward narrative.
Where is the risk?
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That some piece of the value chain of the AI derailer and causes a domino effect on contracts and expectations.
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That competitors such as China (Alibaba, Baidu, etc.) erosion the domain of US leading companies.
Europe also gains prominence: technological ones such as ASML and SAP benefit from investor investment and quote with a 20-25% discount against Americans. Nvidia investment promises in the United Kingdom or Trump administration incentives have revitalized the sector in the old continent.
In parallel, the emerging offers another growth route: Type cuts, weak dollar, gradual tariffs and a favorable demographic cycle in countries such as India or Mexico. China, with its technological rally, remains a global leader in 2025. And let’s not forget the American bankswhich can capitalize on the increase in mergers and acquisitions, exits and a positive differential between long loans and cheap financing.
Classic shelters? Gold, silver and bitcoin. Although some say that gold is expensive, the real question is not whether it will reach $ 4,000, but when. These assets, independent of the central banks, remain the best policy against the loss of purchasing power.