Yes S&P 500one of the main American indexes, came through several obstacles in what we are going to the year, now we must add a couple more. The strategists of RBC Capital have added to the risk list the fears for inflation and Israeli-Irani conflict. However, from Bank of America they are more positive about the selective.
RBC statements published by Bloomberg They point out that US actions are shown Vulnerable due to the recent rise and exaggerated quotes.
Experts pointed out the more the conflict extends in the Middle East, the more negative it will be for American actions.
In the worst case, experts point out a 20% correction And in the best could accuse a Fall of about 13%.
«The conflict could generate more concerns about the health of the consumer, the economy in general and the trajectory of the Federal Reserve, a change of narrative that seems that it could be problematic for the prices of the actions,» added RBC.
Regarding inflation, strategists indicated that a «Severe rebound» of inflation towards 4% could contribute to a fall of the S&P 500 to the 4,800 points.
Despite this scenario, analysts of Bank of America Securities They maintain their positive conviction with respect to the index.
According to data shared by Bit FinanceBofa points out that after the fall of April he quotes 21 times future profits. 35% above their historical average. However, they emphasize that unlike 1980 the index is dominated by companies with greater margins, lesser leverage and less utilities volatility.
Savita Subramanian, Head of Quantitative Strategy and Variable Income of the UShas indicated several reasons why the American market can justify its valuation: A more solid general balance, lower number of non -profitable companies and greater free cash flow per action.
It also offers the Long -term growth double that Asia or Europe, with less volatility in its benefits and a more favorable ecosystem for companies. Without forgetting your energy independence, the role of the dollar as a reserve currency, its incomparable liquidity and global leadership in the energy sector.
The Bofa model favors the communication, utilities and technology services sectors.