The announcement of New tariffs by Donald Trump a Canada, Mexico, although these delayed one month, and China The analysts of Goldman Sachs GR. They have pointed out that this I could sink to S&P 500so they have taken their Gain earning forecast according to Sagarika Jaisinghani en Yahoo Finance.
The president of the United States, Donald Trump, has announced 25% levies to imports of Mexico and Canadathat will come into force on Tuesday, unless it reaches a last moment agreement or a postponement as has happened in the case of their southern neighbor.
China will be affected by a 10%tax, While Trump also reiterated a warning to European Union that tariffs «will definitely be imposed.»
«These ads have been a shock for many investors who expected tariffs only to be imposed if trade negotiations failed,» wrote the Goldman Sachs David Kostin strategist In a note. «Our economists describe perspectives as unclear, but they believe that there is a substantial probability that tariffs to Canada and Mexico are temporary.»
Kostin said that, if they are maintained, the last tariffs They would reduce their S&P 500 profit forecasts in approximately a 2% of a 3%, regardless of the impact of greater adjustment on financial conditions or changes in consumers and companies. He also warned that the fair value of S&P 500 could collapse around 5% in the short term due to the impact on both the profits and the assessments of the actions.
Kostin was one of the most cautious voices about US actions in early 2024, before increasing his end of the year several times during the year to catch up with the rebound of the S&P 500. For the purposes of 2025the strategist has established a goal of 6,500 pointswhich implies profits of around 8% since the closing of Friday.
While the reference index advanced 2.7% in January, investors confidence was affected by concerns that Trump’s policies will be inflationary. Technological actions were also affected by the concerns that the United States might not continue to be an artificial intelligence innovation leader.
The world stock markets collapsed on Monday because of the concerns that the latest tariff measures can result in a Commercial War in full rule.
All eyes have been placed in the reporting season of the fourth quarter in search of clues on how US companies are preparing for Trump’s protectionist agenda. Although it is still early, tariffs already dominate the telephone conferences after the results.
He Morgan Stanley Michael Wilson strategistone of the most notable bearish voices on the actions until mid -2024, said that the stock markets so far had been optimistic about the possibility of sustained encumbrances, but that opinion «is likely to be tested the longer the longer keep these tariffs. «
In RBC Capital Markets, the Lori Calvasina strategist He also warned that the possibility of a 5% reduction to â € ‹â € ‹10% in S&P 500 has increased after tariff advertisements, in the midst of high exposure of investors and high assessments of shares.
En goldman Sachs LA mobile average of 70 periods is maintained under the candles, RSI down in the 62 points and the MACD lines above the zero level.
The medium and long term resistance is found in 650 dollars. Meanwhile, EI indicators are mostly bullish.