Although most see the Donald Trump tariffs Like something negativefrom S&P Global Ratings They have put themselves in the opposite sidewalk giving him the approval to them. Experts consider that they will help shock the impact of tax reductions of the president about the Fiscal Health of the USA, allowing Maintain your current credit rating according to Ruth Carson and Alice Atkins in Yahoo Finance.
While Trump’s commercial war has shocked markets, disturbed foreign governments and caused criticisms of outstanding economists, S&P ratified its AA+ rating for the US.a score that has been granted since 2011, when the AAA rating to the world’s largest economy was reduced for the first time.
This is due, in part, to consider that the flow of money from tariffs will compensate for the impact of the recent tax and expense reform on the US budget position. UU. The perspective for long -term qualification maintained stable.
«Amid the increase in effective tariff fees, we hope that significant tariff income general Lisa Schinselin a report.
Los Treasury bonds They rose slightly throughout the curve on Tuesday, with the yields of the 10 and 30 year old bonds going down two basic points, to the 4.31% and 4.91%, respectively. The dollar was quoted with few changes.
The decision offers a hint of good news for Trump, by supporting one of its arguments: the imposition of tariffs is already helping Improve the fiscal position of the country. Tariff income reached a new monthly record in July, with customs tariffs ascending to 28,000 million dollars.
The opinions of the qualification agencies have had an important impact on the largest bond market in the world this year. The concern for the deficit led to Moody’s Ratings to withdraw to the United States its previous maximum credit qualification in May, aligning its score with that of S&P y Fitch Ratings. This measure raised the profitability of the treasure bonds to 30 years above 5% and increased the risk of forced sales by some pension funds.
S&P said that the stable perspective indicates its expectation that, although the fiscal deficit will not improve significantly, it will also not deteriorate persistently in the coming years. The company expects the net debt of the general government exceeds the 100% of GDP In the next three years, but he believes that the deficit of the general government will average the 6% between 2025 y 2028compared to 7.5% of last year.
«This does not indicate any substantial change in the fiscal health of the United States, which is a complex issue,» he said Homin Lee, senior macro-economic strategist by Lombard Odier Ltd. in Singapore. He adds that the recent Moody’s qualification reduction generated a lot of anxiety, but it was «in reality only symbolic» and did not adjust to a change in market perception.
Buy American products
If tariffs will provide the United States with a significant increase in income is a topic of debate among economists, who point out an apparent contradiction in the Trump approach core: Income depends on tradebut Trump has also tried to repatriate production to the United States and encourage consumers to buy products made in that country. Measures that would undermine the future tax collection.
He United States Treasury Secretary, Scott Besenthe said that tariff income for the entire year 2025 could «overcome 1% of GDP», reviewing its previous estimate of 300,000 million dollars. The Congress Budget Officea non -partisan entity, estimates that the recently approved budget law will add 3.4 billion dollars to deficit during the next 10 years.
What Bloomberg strategists say
«The pressure on the FED to consider challenging the rates markets and keeping them next month has just received an impulse (quite moderate) thanks to the fact that S&P Global Ratings presented a solid report on the economy and perspectives of the United States.» Garfield Reynolds, leader of the MLIV team.
For now, market participants focus on the Speech by the president of the Fed, Jerome Powell, in Jackson Hole on Fridaywhile trying to evaluate whether the treasure bonds will be driven by the cuts of interest rates in the US.
«The S&P report does not offer any important support for bonds,» he said Chris Iggo, Axa Investment Managers investment directorwho added that tariff income could decrease if US consumers leave imported products in favor of nationals. «The most important factors are still inflation, employment data and Fed position,» Iggo concluded.