Interest rates on the low moderating financing cost for both companies and mortgages, an increasing demand for use of housing, commercial, office, tourism and a clearly insufficient offer that has a long way to go. All this is generating juicy pre -sale levels, outstanding opportunities with very high profitability, greater occupation and a flow generation capacity that fattens dividends and carries the profitability for the shareholder to more than interesting levels. And this is still starting. The market knows that a more than interesting horizon opens for the sector, it is discounting it, but calmly, still leaving room to enter.
Based on our Results forecast for the closing of fiscal year 2025 already current contribution, the 7 main real estate/socimis of the Spanish stock exchange quotes with a medium by 17,62xsuperior to the multiple on medium benefits for both IBEX 35 and for the continuous market.
Among the Seven real estate, INSUR It is the one that quotes with the greatest discount for this ratio, 6,47xfollowed by Lar Spain (which will be excluded from contribution after the success of the OPA) and Inmobiliaria Colonial13.9x benefits.
A more relevant multiple in the sector, the P/NAV. The average for this ratio is 0.74x. An adequate level taking into account that it is the number of times that the price discounts the net value of the assets of these companies at market prices and that these assets cannot be made immediately. Therefore, an adequate P/Christmas could be around 0.7/08X, precisely what Grupo Lar has paid in the OPA for Lar Spain. Among the seven companies, also southern real estate Metrovacesa a 0.66x.
For one good fundamental assessment we must also take into account the level of debt, that is, the leverage that these assets are supporting. The most relevant data is the LTV and on average this real estate group show a percentage of 27.50%, a moderate level in a context of cost of leverage like the current one. In this case, Neinor and Metrovacesa are the two real estate companies with LTV of less than 20%, followed by Aedas (26.8%), Merlin (27.40%). Insur, the cheapest real estate by per and for P/NAV has an leverage of 38.10% and colonial of 36.50%.
If we look at the Profitability on dividend, the most generous are Neinor with 9.89% and Aedas Homes in 8.34%, Not far from Metrovacesa that provides a profitability via dividend to its shareholders of 7.89%.
In short, and taking into account that the debt is controlled in the seven companies, We see greater discount and therefore greater potential in Insur, Colonial and Metrovacesa. If the investment seeks dividend, then the recommended ones are Neinor Homes, Aedas Homes and Metrovacesa.
|
Ratios 2025e |
PER |
P/NAV |
LTV |
Divd.-Yield |
|
MERLIN |
18,90 |
0,76 |
27,40% |
3,75% |
|
COLONIAL |
13,90 |
0,55 |
36,50% |
4,93% |
|
Aedas |
12,39 |
0,91 |
26,80% |
8,34% |
|
Insur Group |
6,47 |
0,47 |
38,10% |
2,99% |
|
Lar Spain |
12,06 |
0,80 |
33,40% |
7,02% |
|
Metrovacesa |
39,60 |
0,66 |
16,00% |
7,89% |
|
Neinor |
20,00 |
1,05 |
14,30% |
9,89% |
|
MEDIA |
17,62 |
0,74 |
27,50% |
6,40% |
2025E, ratios calculated with the price at the end of 03/02/2025 and own estimates (EI) based on market consensus
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