The magnitude 6.8 earthquake that shook the northern region of Thailand on March 28, with an epicenter in Myanmar, has left an immediate economic mark that adds to commercial tensions with the United States.
According to Fitch Ratings analysis presented on April 1the country could face combined losses that would exceed 30,000 million baht (820 million dollars), putting approximately 1% growth of the GDP projected for this year.
Tourism and real estate sector emerge as the most affected by this dual crisisjust when Thailand tried to consolidate his postpandemic recovery.
Yunyong Thaicharoen, senior executive vice president of SIAM Commercial Bank, has warned of different media that travel cancellations already exceed 400,000 reservations for April, while the condominium market in Bangkok shows a 1% drop in transactions.
These data contrast with the moderate growth of 2.4% of GDP that was projected by 2025 before these events, now in very serious review.
Coup to the tourism sector
The Tourism industry, which represents about 20% of the Thai economyis suffering after the earthquake a new setback. Just when he recovered the pre-pandemic figures.
The massive cancellations of hotel flights and reserves in the affected regions threaten to leave a vacuum of 400,000 visitors only in April. This endangers the annual goal of 38.2 million international arrivals, a crucial objective for the country’s economic recovery.
Real estate market contraction
The tremor has shaken trust in the real estate sector, particularly in high -rise developments. Condominium transfers in the Bangkok metropolitan area have decreased by 1%, slowing down efforts to reduce the accumulated inventory of approximately 7,400 units without selling.
Different experts estimate that between three and four months will be needed to restore the confidence of buyers.
Risk for the commercial surplus
As if this were not enough, Thailand faces a possible important reduction in its GDP after US tariffs of 36% to its exports. With a commercial surplus of 45,000 million baht with the United States, the Thai economy is particularly vulnerable to these measures.
The announcement of April 2 could affect key sectors such as electronics, textiles and agricultural products.
American tariffs They could move to Thailand in the global supply chains. Multinational companies could reconsider their operations in the country if export costs increase significantly, which would affect direct foreign investment and the Employment in manufacturing sectors.
Measures for economic recovery
The red lights do not stop for the country of infinite beaches. Also the Bank of Thailand prepares two additional cuts of interest rates in 2025according to Thaicharoen.
The reference rate is expected to drop from the current 2% to 1.5%, seeking to stimulate credit and relieve the burden of debt in homes and companies. This measure aims to close the gap between the real and potential growth of GDP.
Thai authorities have already announced measures to restore confidence in some of the affected sectors. With anticipation of help packages for regional tourism and guarantees for the real estate sector. Despite this, experts warn that the effectiveness of these programs will depend on their rapid and coordinated implementation.
The combination of natural disasters and commercial tensions places Thailand in a critical economic crossroads. While the country occupies the 162nd post in post-covid recovery, according to data presented at the Fitch Ratings Seminar, these new challenges demand agile and coordinated political responses.
Will Thailand be able to maintain its moderate growth? Or on the contrary, convulsive times are coming for your already touched economy from the Covid-19 pandemic?