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In this context, assets such as Bitcoin and gold can be highlighted in great way.
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Bitcoin is an antidote against the devaluation of Fíat money.
The US dollar once an unwavering bastion in global markets, faces a cloudy horizon.
A recent Bank of America survey, held between April 4 and 10, reveals that The largest investment funds in the world anticipate a sustained depreciation of the US currency in the next 12 months.
This pessimism, promoted by the tariff policies of the Donald Trump administration, can be taking investors to rethink their exposure to instruments linked to the dollarlike Treasury bonds, which could face significant capital outputs.
In this context of turbulence, alternative assets such as gold and bitcoin (BTC) emerge as potential shelterscapturing the attention of those who seek to protect themselves against the devaluation of the Fíat currency.
Fund managers foreseen a weakened dollar
The latest global fund managers of Bank of America, which interviewed 164 administrators with more than 386,000 million dollars under management, reflects a gloomy mood.
Made during April, the month in which the White House, established new tariff ads, The survey shows a drastic fall in optimism.
The broader measure of the feeling of managers, which evaluates global growth expectations, actions of actions and cash balances, It collapsed to 1.8 in April, from 3.8 in March, the lowest level since October 2023as can be seen in the following graph.
This pessimism is largely attributed to the economic measures of Donald Trump, which included a 245% tariff to Chinese imports and the promise of delaying tariffs to 70 countries for only 90 days.
These policies have intensified the commercial war with China, eroding confidence in the dollar as a safe refuge. 61% net of respondents expect the dollar to depreciate in next year, says the US financial entity.
The DXY index, which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of Fíat currencies, It played 97 points last week, its minimum in three years, and is currently 98 points.
In response, investors are adjusting their portfolios. According to the Financial Bulletin The Kobeissi Letter, foreigners sold 22,000 million dollars in American shares in April, after a record out of 41,000 million in March, the largest in at least one year.
The main vendors have been European investors, although they still have 16 billion dollars in US shares, equivalent to 23% of the total market value. «As the money leaves the United States, the euro is strengthened against the dollar,» explains The Kobeissi Letter.
Since the beginning of March, the EUR/USD torque shows an upward trend, indicating that more dollars are needed to buy a euro, reflecting a relative devaluation of the dollar.
This dynamic has deep implications. The strength of the euro against the dollar could alter commercial and investment flows in Europe, strengthening the position of the European currency in global markets. In addition, The increase in gold holdings in global reserves reflects a search for stability in an environment of expansive monetary policies. Bitcoin, meanwhile, gains traction as a digital refuge asset among institutional investors.
Commercial War and Political Turbulence
The commercial war between the United States and China, combined with a political uncertainty that JP Morgan describes as «unprecedented», is mining confidence in US assets.
Markets have registered simultaneous sales of shares, bonds and dollars, a rare phenomenon. «Investors demand a greater risk premium to keep active in dollars,» says JP Morgan, What weakens the traditional position of the dollar as sure shelter.
Foreign treasure bond holdings have fallen to 23% of US government debt, the lowest level in 22 years, according to The Kobeissi Letter.
It is declues, by 11 percentage points in the last nine years, reflects a trend of diversification of global reserves.
In contrast, gold has gained ground, representing 18% of international reserves, the highest percentage in 26 years, an increase of 8 percentage points since 2015. This reconfiguration of global wallets suggests a structural change in the perception of the risk associated with the dollarBulletin analysts point out.
On the other hand, Trump’s tariff policies generate debate. Mark Benbow, aegon High Yield co -manager, questions his logic: «Do you want the United States to manufacture its own products? Yes. But, shirts and shoes with an adjusted labor market? It is a challenge.»
A 37% tariff on Botsuana diamond exports illustrates contradictions. «It is not necessary to be an expert to notice these oddities,» says Benbow. Although the administration plans to negotiate tariffs with countries such as the United Kingdom and Japan, China seems intractable, raising the risk premium in US markets.
Gold and Bitcoin: Storm shelters
In this context of volatility, Gold and Bitcoin capture the attention of investors. The gold reached $ 3,500 per ounce last week, marking a new historical maximum in its price.
Bitcoin, For its part, it exceeded $ 95,000, its maximum since the beginning of March, after staying stable about $ 86,000last week. Both assets show a growing correlation, driven by their perception as shelters against macroeconomic uncertainty.
Gold, historically valued by its scarcity and global liquidity, has been a pillar for central banks. However, Bitcoin offers unique advantages in the digital age. With a fixed supply of 21 million coins, a mathematically guaranteed, its shortage is absolute. The Bitcoin Network allows to verify the authenticity of each unit immediately and offers global liquidity, with rapid transfers regardless of the amount or distance, as indicated by a recent publication of cryptootics.
In this sense, Bitcoin is an antidote against the devaluation of the Fíat money, highlighting its ability to preserve value in an environment of expansive monetary policies.
In addition, Bitcoin resistance to censorship and confiscation makes it attractive in crisis scenarios. In the past, governments have resorted to confiscations to correct state deficits, a risk that Bitcoin Mitiga.
These properties position Bitcoin as an superior asset, combining the virtues of gold with the flexibility of the Bitcoin network. His ability to operate outside the traditional financial systems makes it an attractive optionespecially in emerging markets where distrust in Fíat currencies is high.
Investment funds, attentive to these signals, diversify towards assets such as the euro, the Japanese yen, the gold and Bitcoin. For JP Morgan, volatility in US assets is remarkable, with days marked by mass sales. «Investors are reconsidering their high exposure to US assets,» warns the bank, suggesting adjustments in the allocation of portfolios and currencies.