The global monetary order faces a classic collapse, Ray Dalio warns

It is not just a commercial war that is ongoing. Actually, the world wobbles on the edge of a historical abyss and happens when just what is seen on the surface is the tip of the iceberg that, deep down, hides a systemic breakup that could redefine our era. That is the analysis made by Ray Dalio, a figure in the financial world respected for its ability to explain complex concepts accessible.

In an analysis that criticizes myopia to focus exclusively on tariffs imposed by the administration of Donald Trump, he argues that the «general panorama» is being overlooked. Per se, Dalio sees a systemic disintegration driven by historical forces recurring that threatens to drastically reconfigure the global economy and society.

«Do not make the mistake of thinking that what is happening now is mainly tariffs,» says the analysis. «We are witnessing a classic collapse of the main orders […] that happens approximately once in life ».

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates.

5 forces are redefining the world

In his text, Dalio identifies five interconnected forces that promote the transformation of a new order. For him, The root of the problem is a level of global debt unsustainably high. It describes a critical imbalance between chronic debtors such as the United States, dependent on credit to finance their consumption, and creditors such as China, dependent on selling goods to those debtors.

He speaks of a world in dyslobalization and with growing distrust, under a model that, according to him, «will have to change in a disruptive way,» thus anticipating a massive impact on capital markets.

The second force that, according to Dalio, promotes global transformation is an internal fractured political order, where The growing gaps in education, wealth, opportunities and values ​​are feeding extreme polarization.

In his analysis he observes the boom of left and right populisms, engaged in struggles of «all or nothing», eroding the commitment and rule of law necessary for democracy. He warns that history shows how, in such circumstances, strong autocratic leaders emerge.

As a third force that drives the transformation, the founder of one of the largest and most successful coverage funds in the world identifies the collapse of the international geopolitical order. With this, He states that the American unilateral domain is over. And that is why we will see commercial wars, geopolitical, technological and, occasionally military confrontations.

The fourth force are acts of nature, with extreme climatic events such as droughts, floods and pandemics that Dalio points out as increasingly frequent and impressive disruptive factors. While fifth force is technological. This is because it is about a sector that is radically transforming all aspects of lifeinteracting with complex ways with the economic, political and international order.

This convergence of forces does not go unnoticed by other people. Analysts and investors, from teams such as Kintsugi Investing to voices such as Jack Mallers, point out that the age of cheap globalization and the undisputed dominance of the dollar is coming to an end.

In short, the 5 interconnected forces that drive the new world order

1. The decomposition economic order.
2. The fractured political order.
3. The geopolitical order collapsed.
4. The acts of nature.
5. The technological changes.

As Cryptonotics reported yesterday, Kintsugi Investing, a financially independent duo, describes in X how economic fragmentation raises costs, prioritizes local production and awakens inflation as a ghost of the past. «This is not inherently bad, but it is inflation,» they warn, while Trump tariffs 185 countries shake the markets.

Before that, in February, Jack Mallers, CEO of Strike, pointed out that Trump’s master plan is to weaken the dollar to rebuild USA. In his podcast The Money Matters, Mallers argues that the system based on The domain of the dollar, fed by commercial deficits and mass debt of the United States, is unsustainable. This model, trapped in the «triffin dilemma» – where the global reserve currency generates increasing deficits that erodes its own value – is coming to an end, exacerbated by the delalarization driven by countries such as China and Russia, which seek alternatives to the dollar.

Mallers sees in Trump tariffs a strategy to weaken the dollar, promote reindustrialization and «inflate» the debt of 35 billion dollars, making less competitive imports and prioritizing local production.

However, The true winner of this «global economic restart», according to him, will be Bitcoin. As a scarce and neutral active, not subject to national policies or monetary impression, Mallers predicts that Bitcoin will absorb value in this reorganization, positioning itself as a global reserve against a dollar in decline. «Bitcoin is the only neutral market that exists,» he says, anticipating decades of growth for cryptocurrency in a world where traditional economic rules fall apart.