Los US Treasury Bonds have always been seen as Refuge Assets For investors at the time of crisis, but Donald Trump tariffs They have changed this dynamic. Is that the same 10 to 30 years They have seen a Growth of your performancewhile Dollar collapsed according to Ye Xle en Yahoo Finance.
In other words, they are negotiated, in a way, as a risk asset. Or, as the former Secretary of Treasury Lawrence Summerslike the debt from an emerging country.
Even if this dynamic fades as stock fluctuations were normalized, as the majority of analysts expect, a message has been transmitted to the political leaders in Washington: the Investor Trust In American bonds, it can no longer be taken for granted, not after years of excessive indebtedness that increased its debt burden, or with a White House president determined to rewrite national and international rules, antagonizing, in the process, many of the country’s greatest creditors.
This has deep implications for the global financial system. As active «Risk free» In the world, treasure bonds are used as a reference to determine the price of everything, from shares to sovereign bonds and mortgage rates, while serving as a guarantee for billions of dollars in daily loans.
«Treasury and dollar bonds are strengthened thanks to the global perception of US fiscal and monetary management competence and the solidity of US political and financial institutions,» he said Jim Grant, fundador de Grant’s Interest Rate Observera broad financial bulletin. «The world may be reconsidering.»
The shares, the bonds and the dollar collapsed on Thursday, which fueled the concern that foreign investors are massively abandoning US assets. He Treasury bond performance at thirty years rose 13 basic points, to 4.87%, while the Dollar collapsed in front of the euro and the Swiss Franco at its highest level in a decade.
«Treasury bonds are not behaving like a safe shelter,» he said Padhraic Garvey, Ing type strategist. «If we enter into recession, there is the possibility that the yields return down. But the current situation presents the treasure bonds as a contaminated product, and that is not a fertile terrain. Treasury bonds have also proven to be a difficult investment.»
The situation has been so difficult that treasure bonds had never lost so much in front of German bonds as this week. The German bonds They are becoming the favorite alternative For fund managers seeking refuge against the United States.
On Wednesday, US debt liquidation became so aggravated that some strategists even speculated that Federal reserve It would have to intervene to support the markets. When Trump announced a delay in the application of some tariffs, he said he had been watching the market and had seen that «people were getting a little nervous.»
«The bond market is now in full shape,» Trump said, despite the current chaos.
What Bloomberg strategists say …
«Treasury bonds are losing their status of refuge. Capital leaves the US at an increasing rate as the dollar’s position weakens as a reserve currency, and the risk of recession increases the probability of a two -digit fiscal deficit that drives inflation,» he said Simon White, macroestratega de Bloomberg.
Not everyone is convinced that investors are losing confidence in the security of US public debt.
Benson Durham, director of Global Assets Assignment at Piper Sandler and Federal Reserve Execonomisthas performed its own analysis by comparing the key metrics of the treasure bond market with those of Europe. “Some indicators suggest that investors have demanded a smaller cousin To have US debt compared to German and British bonds in recent days, ”said Durham.
«People are right to worry about this general economic management,» Durham added. «But I am not sure, at least, that this is an episode in which US assets are especially penalizing.»
However, there are indications in the markets, although without forceful evidence that supports them, that the Treasury bonds could have fallen because China is selling or rejecting them. Some debate if Beijing could eventually get rid of US debt in response to US tariffs.
Others claim that more technical factors are behind the recent long -term liquidation. There are indications that the coverage funds have been liquidating leverage operations that take advantage of price differences between treasure bonds and interest rates or futures contracts.
He Treasury Secretary, Scott Besenthe supported this opinion in an appearance in Fox Business Earlier this week.
«I think there is nothing systemic in this; I think it is an uncomfortable but normal disappointment that is being produced in the bond market,» said Besent, who, when assuming the position, announced the reduction of the costs of loans to 10 years as an ambition.
A 30 -year -old bond auction Thursday also allowed investors to acquire 22,000 million dollars of debtwhich supports the argument that treasure bonds remain attractive even during liquidation.
However, this does not mean that markets are behaving as always.
Las US actions have collapsed 7% Since Trump announced on April 2 his plans to increase tariffs to dozens of countries. Since then, instead of collapsing, the Bond yields at 30 years have risen about 40 basic pointsjust the fifth time, since the 1970s, that movements of this magnitude have produced simultaneously.
The increase in yields is a risk to Trump’s declared objective to cut taxes and, at the same time, control the budget deficit, and was, at least in part, the reason for his decision on Wednesday to announce a 90 -day break in the increase in tariffs for dozens of countries.
«Long -term interest rates are showing a bullish gap, even while the stock market moves sharply down,» Summers wrote, who is also a paid collaborator of Bloomberg, this week in a publication on social networks. «Global financial markets treat us as a problematic emerging market,» said Summers, adding that «this could trigger all kinds of vicious spirals, given debts and government deficits and dependence on foreign buyers.»
“If foreign investors decide to continue withdrawing from US assets, the impact could be considerable. They have around 7 billion dollars in treasure bonds, 19 billion dollars in shares and 5 billion dollars in corporate debtwhich represents between 20% and 30% of the total market ”, according to Torsten Slok, chief economist of Apollo Global Management Inc.
If the recent history serves as a guide, a buyers strike could have lasting repercussions on the indebtedness costs of the United States.
Only three years ago, investor resistance to taxes without financing from the British Prime Minister Liz Trusspromoted an increase in the yields that the country has not yet recovered, while the sterling pound was never recovered after the 2016 Brexit referendum.
«There is distrust in the market generated by intermittent tariffs, and that certainly adds a premium of uncertainty,» he said Shamil Gohil, gestor de cartera de Fidelity International. «The large fiscal deficits will generate continuous concern about the sustainability of the debt, which will probably require a risk premium to maintain treasure bonds.»
Nathan Thooft, Manulife Senior wallet manager Investment HandmakingHe said that Treasury bonds continue to dominate global markets in terms of quality and depth, but acknowledged that recent events have undermined investors.
«Much of the challenge we have seen in the last decade is due to political or geopolitical dynamics promoted outside the United States,» said Thooft. The dynamic is different this time, which is causing people to distrust US assets, both in variable income and fixed income. Permanent damage has probably occurred.
It is also different this time because the Fed, concerned about how tariffs could boost an increase in inflation, the bond market is less likely to lower short -term interest rates.
«You can’t trust long -term treasure bonds as coverage,» he said Russell Brownback, gestor de cartera de BlackRock. «That is the fixed income regime in which we are currently.»