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Other stablecoins, such as Sky, USDE and Pyusd, have been growing constantly.
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The Stablecoins market has a USD 300,000 million capitalization.
The Stablecoins market lives a change in its structure. Nic Carter, co -founder of Coinmetrics and financial researcher, warns that in the next two years the domain of USD Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) in the Exchange could reduce the increase in new options.
Both both concentrate 245,000 million dollars of offer, equivalent to 85% of A market whose total capitalization is more than 300,000 million dollarsaccording to current market data.
«Since its creation, only USDT and USDC have maintained a significant market share. No one else has approached, ”says Carter, recalling that other attempts from Stablecoin, such as DAI, Terra or Binance Busd, reached specific quotas between USD 10,000 and 23,000 million dollars, but failed to support themselves.
The maximum mastery of the USDT/USDC duopoly occurred in March 2024, with 91.6% of the total market share controlled by those two stablecoins, as seen in the following graph. Since then It has declined to 86% and Carter believes that it will continue to fall.
«The reasons for this are: the renewed assertiveness of intermediaries, as well as a career towards the offer of greater returns, together with the new regulatory dynamics after the genius law,» he explained referring to US regulation which grants a legal framework for stable cryptocurrencies.
New emitters and lower entrance cost
According to Carter, fixed costs to issue a stable have fallen. Platforms such as Anchorage, Brale, M0, Agora or Bridge allow even startups In an early stage they throw their own tokens.
«You don’t need to be a giant to do it,» he said. This generates that Fintech and Neobancos offer balancers in generic «dollars»regardless of what stablecoin supports the reserves.
Protocols defeat also advance in their own emissions. The case of Hyperliquid is key: he organized a tender to choose his Stablecoin provider, with the aim of reducing USDC dependence. The result was an agreement with Native Markets, Leaving $ 5.5 billion in USDC still on its platformequivalent to 7.8% of the total supply of that currency.
In parallel, Wallets like Phantom launched their own products, such as Phantom Cash, with integrated performance and payments. For Carter, these initiatives show that It is no longer attractive to yield the flotation of users to third -party emitters.
GROWTH COMPETITION
On the other hand, Stablecoins such as Sky (Maker), USDE (Ethena), Pyusd (Paypal) and USD1 (World Liberty) make up the new competitor block. Names such as Usdy de Ondo, USDG of Paxos and AUSD of Agora also arise. Carter points out that «today there is more offer from Stablecoins Ex-Tethher/Circle than ever, and is distributed among a broader set of emitters.»
Almost all new proposals include performance strategies. The appeal is concentrated in offering incentives to move to USDT and USDCthat maintain liquidity and adoption, but do not share interests of their reserves.
«If you want to persuade someone to leave Tether, you will have to give him a very good reason,» adds Carter.
The regulatory changes after Genius allow US banks to emit Stablecoins under certain conditions: support of high quality liquid assets, convertibility 1: 1 and regular audits. Carter is not clear that banks are launched massivelybut he believes that «we will begin to see them in the next two years» for the pressure of maintaining deposits and generating income through rates and custody.
Perspectives and risks
The Venezuelan consultant and accountant specialized in cryptocurrencies, Jan Domínguez, considers that market opening is favorable for adoption. «A stablecoin is the simplest initiation channel for any user. That there are now more actors is definitely positive for mass use, ”he explains in dialogue with cryptootics.
For Domínguez, however, USDT and USDC could be strengthened: «They carry an important front with respect to their competitors, with accumulated experience since 2014 and greater regulatory alignment.»
In its analysis, the Genius law also responds to an economic purpose of the United States, related to its sovereign debt, and could open the door to similar initiatives in other countries.
On capitalization, Domínguez projects accelerated growth for market capitalization of the Stablecoins: «With new institutional actors, governments and regulators, I have no doubt that the figure can double or triple in five years.» Add that The entry of new emitters increases the available liquiditywhich will benefit the ecosystem and especially Bitcoin (BTC) as an active receiver.
It shouldbut its evolution shows a concentration pattern followed by openings. Tether and Circle, issuing companies of the largest stable cryptocurrencies in the market, maintain the dominant position, although the reduction of their quota since 2024 opens a different scenario.
Nic Carter summarizes it in a phrase: «We are experiencing a waterpartering of stablecoins.»
Indeed, competition is no longer hypothetical. New emitters, Defi protocols, Wallets and eventually banks are taking positions. The Stablcoins market, of 300,000 million dollars, It could be transformed into more fragmented landwith less dependent assets of two names and more diversified in their sources of issuance and use.