ArcelorMittal and IAG (Iberia) are two of the most affected stocks in the Ibex 35 after the outbreak of the war between Israel and the US against Iran, yet, let us not forget, the duration and effects for global economies have yet to be determined. What in principle everyone discounted in the markets as a very specific and short-term operation, has become a powder keg of dubious resolution and with a longer-than-expected horizon.
It has become complicated and entrenched, which means a price of crude oil and the rest of the energy with vertical increases, also due to the effect of the released gas, with all the consequences that it entails. And these two values include all the negative part of that increase. as they have been demonstrating in recent weeks, up to three weeks of conflict.
And these two values appear to be the big losers, for different reasons and also changing very different dynamics from those that followed so far in 2026 in the Spanish selective. However, analysts agree that, when the conflict finally ends, and especially if it does so without structural consequences, it will be two of the stars of the year on the IBEX 35.
It was already the stock that appreciated the most since the beginning of 2026, ArcelorMittal, with advances that exceeded 46%. A spectacular rebound that was clearly supported by experts.
From Deutsche Bank, in mid-January, they predicted good figures, which were later reflected in the market, indicating that «more moderate results in North America and Brazil will be offset by the stronger contributions from Europe, Mining and Sustainable Solutions.» And above all backed by its high presence in Europe: «ArcelorMittal shares have performed well after the announcement by the European Commission of a new trade defense instrument (TDI). «This policy could be a game-changer for the EU steel sector, creating potential for significant margin expansion.»
Even at Morgan Stanley they indicated that factors such as safeguards on imports of steel and the entry into force of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), a community policy that imposes a carbon price on certain imported products (cement, iron/steel, aluminum, fertilizers, electricity and hydrogen) to equalize competitiveness with European producers and avoid «carbon leakage» and which comes into force this year, They would even lead to it doubling its stock market value.
All this was truncated and in what way, with losses of up to 30% since February 28 on the stock market, with days to forget and drops of 6% accumulated in each of them. The pernicious effect of the war had a full impact on the steel value.
The intensity of energy use in the sector It is one of its greatest liabilities, now vertically more expensive, so its production costs skyrocket and make it more difficult to market its products, which will even be more expensive or with a lower profit margin.
And what was an advantage, the fact that 50% of its steel is produced in Europe in light of the new regulations, With oil and gas skyrocketing, it becomes a drag that is quoted in its price in the face of more devastating effects than in other areas of that rebound, here, in the Old Continent.
Being a cyclical company, the weakness of manufacturing activity and the immediate impact on the steel business of the negative consequences, They have done the rest.
Its potential remains with close to 30% of the average of analysts collected by Reuters with a target price of 55.75 euros per share.
But confidence rises with a possible upward trend for Sabadell of 32% to 56.50 euros and up to 61.50 for Alphavalue, with 44% of potential.
Already in the case of IAG (Iberia) we are talking about an added factor, which we already saw in the pandemic: when a negative event of any kind occurs that slows down global activity, both leisure and business trips are fragmented first and then, with the closure even of the air zone of the conflict, closed completely, due to the lack of activity.
The European presence of its airlines has also strongly reduced its price.by more than 20% these daysand, above all, due to the future consequences of an increase in inflation, which means lower general consumption and a decrease in confidence, which, as we have already seen, translates into fewer trips and potential savings.
Another negative effect is the cost of kerosene, its fuel. Although in this, as in everything, there are significant differences. Morgan Stanley says that IAG, along with Ryanair, considers them both as its Top Pick or sector preferred stocks – is seen better positioned because «investors do not expect the current fuel rally to remain at elevated levels, or believe airlines can offset fuel inflation via pricing without damaging demand.»
And although he points out that «Greater pricing power could partially or fully offset fuel inflation in the short termestimates that double-digit rate increases in Europe could put pressure on volumes in the accounts for both the second and third quarters of the year.»
And all on account of the coverage. In the case of the airline holding we are talking about 62% of the fuel which it plans to consume in 2026, at levels equal to those of AirFrance-KLM although below 80% of Ryanair.
These levels are reached by some airlines in the group in the short term, specifically low-cost airlines such as Vueling and Level.
From Reuters, They include an average buy recommendation with a target price of 5.78 euros per share and potential that exceeds 43% for the experts who have commented on the value.
And among the signatures CaixaBank stands out, with a PO of 5.30 euros per share and possible bullish run for the value that is climbing more than 32% at the moment.