On January 3, 2026, the United States launched a military attack against Venezuela, capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. They are expected to face drug trafficking charges in a New York court. President Trump announced that the US will “administer” Venezuela until a “safe, adequate and prudent transition” occurs.
This marks Washington’s most direct intervention in Latin America since the invasion of Panama 37 years ago.which overthrew the military ruler of that country. Russia, China, Mexico, Cuba and Iran have condemned the attacks as a violation of sovereignty and international law, while the EU and several European capitals urge de-escalation and respect for international legal standards.
Venezuela, home to the largest proven oil reserves in the world, has been mired in economic decline and under sanctions for years.
Implications for markets
At the time of writing, global markets have not yet fully incorporated this development.
Oil
Some volatility is expected in crude oil prices amid fears of a temporary interruption of Venezuelan exports. If the operation leads to sanctions relief (very likely) and an increase in Venezuelan supply over a two- to four-year horizon, this could be bearish for oil prices in the short and medium term. However, this outcome depends on internal stability, political dynamics in the US, and the return of foreign capital. Shares of US oil companies have already risen by double digits following the news.
Oro
Gold enters this event after a historic rally in 2025 (up 60-70%), trading near all-time highs, around USD $4,300–4,500/oz, driven by elevated geopolitical risk, a weaker dollar, expectations of further Fed stimulus measures, and strong demand from both central banks and retail. The attack on Venezuela reinforces the narrative of a fragmented world order, supporting strategic allocations to gold as a hedge against a rapidly fragmenting world. But it also increases the risk of a short-term correction, given how overbought it is from a technical point of view.
Emerging assets in general
Historically, when extreme risks (such as a protracted conflict) dissipate, defaulted or stressed sovereign debt in emerging markets typically rebounds on expectations of regime change, sanctions relief and eventual restructuring. We are likely to see a similar pattern this time, with early signs that the regime is willing to cooperate with the US, which could boost bond prices further. Finally, renewed US threats against Iran—which is currently experiencing violent anti-regime protests across the country—deserve close monitoring, given the Trump administration’s new appetite for activities that provoke regime change.
Conclusion
The direct impact will be concentrated on Venezuelan sovereign debt and certain risk premiums in Latin America. From a global macro perspective, the impact is not expected to be incremental, unless it escalates into a broader conflict involving great powers, which seems highly unlikely. In the bigger picture, with the increasing frequency of these shocks, markets have become largely insensitive to localized conflicts, unless they affect key energy routes or global systemic banks. Investors can see this as another fact in a structurally fragmented world order: favorable for gold and defensive hedges, but not as an isolated event that modifies the level of global risk.