The behavior of bitcoin whales in the face of the current price rise is defining the direction of the market. After weeks of uncertainty, large investors have made a clear decision.
Instead of a massive capital outflow to capitalize on recent gains, data from analytics firm CryptoQuant reveal a retention scenario that strengthens the pricing structure.
This dynamic suggests that the main players in the ecosystem do not view the current value as a ceiling, but as a platform for a much deeper appreciation of BTC.
After reaching an all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025, bitcoin suffered a correction and after weeks of sideways movement. While now BTC is showing initial signs of recovery. Last Monday, January 5, the price of bitcoin achieved a rebound that reached $94,700.
This movement focused on “whales”, entities that accumulate more than 1,000 coins. The reaction of these bitcoin whales to the price rise was not massive selling, but caution.
The low institutional selling pressure of bitcoin
“Despite the recent price bounce, whale interaction with exchanges has actually decreased rather than increased,” according to CryptoQuant community analyst CoinDream.
The specialist maintains that «even after the rebound, whale activity on exchanges remains at relatively low levels.»
According to their analysis, “this suggests that selling pressure from large holders remains limited, supporting a structurally healthy market environment.”
The importance of this data lies in the fact that, “historically, an increase in bitcoin whale activity on exchanges has often acted as a bearish signal, as it tends to precede greater selling pressure,” says CoinDream.
However, the analyst shows in a chart that while the price of bitcoin is trying to recover (the black line rises slightly at the end), the flow of whales to exchanges is falling drastically (the blue area collapses). This divergence indicates that the intention of the bitcoin whales with this price increase is to maintain their assets by betting on long-term growth.
Normally, when the price rises quickly, whales send their BTC to exchanges to take profits (sell). The fact that the flow is decreasing while the price bounces indicates that large investors have no intention of selling yet.
From this perspective, the supply available on exchanges is not growing at the pace of demand, which usually precedes upward price movements.
Perspectives and psychological levels
There are positive expectations about the price of bitcoin. As reported by NoticiasVE, fund manager Bill Miller IV expressed his bullish view on the asset, pointing out that the technical indicators are beginning to align, which suggests that BTC could be ready to take off again.
The investor stressed that, from his perspective, $100,000 represents a key psychological level that, if recovered, could strengthen market sentiment.
To evaluate this scenario, the ratio of whales on exchanges is used, an indicator that calculates the size of the 10 largest deposits in relation to total deposits on an exchange platform.
A high ratio (>0.5) indicates that whales are making the vast majority of entry movements, which usually precedes a price drop due to massive sales. On the contrary, a low ratio (<0.4) indicates that the flow to the exchange is distributed among many small investors, suggesting less institutional selling pressure.
In the following graph, multiple peaks above 0.5 are observed throughout 2025, but precisely in the first days of January 2026—including Monday, January 5— The whale ratio on Binance has hit period lows, falling to 0.35.
This indicates that, although the total flow of whales has decreased, the few movements that are being made on the exchanges may be led mainly by small investors, implying a healthier distribution of deposits and lower risk of institutional sell-offs.
Although there are occasional peaks in whale activity (purple line), the price line (black) is managing to recover strongly. Such a situation is an indication that there is enough buying liquidity to neutralize any selling intention of the whales at the level of $92,000 – $94,000.
The absence of a mass flight to exchanges by whales during this January rally suggests a maturity in investor conviction. If bitcoin manages to consolidate above the psychological resistances and the institutional flow stays away from the sales platforms, the technical structure favors the continuation of the bullish trend.