The price of Bitcoin (BTC) faces a decisive stage following the geopolitical tensions that shake the world, due to the climbing of the war conflict between Israel and Iran.
As cryptootics reported, the price of BTC shows resistance above $ 100,000 after the bombing of the United States to three nuclear facilities in Iran (Fordow, Isfahán and Natanz).
In the midst of this scenario of uncertainty, market analyst Willy Woo warns that «BTC has experienced a change of structure.» For this reason, he recommends: «Remember that the real value does not come from pricing prediction, but from seeing the complete structural panorama so that you can make your own decision on the best way to follow to administer your capital according to your objectives.»
To support his approach, the analyst shares a Swissblock Technologies graph, a firm specialized in the analysis of digital asset markets, where the change of structure mentioned by Willy Woo is observed. It is a lag between two key metrics, such as the growth of the network and the fall in liquidity, which alter Bitcoin’s behavior.
It is that, when the network grows, that supports a price increase. But, currently, although There is a growth in the network, liquidity is fallingwhich generates that structural unbalance that Woo refers.
As can be seen in the following graph, the yellow line represents the price of BTC, while at the bottom the growth of the network (red line) and liquidity stand out on-chain (Blue line), that is, the capital that moves within that environment.
In this regard, Swissblock analysts Technologies say: «This rapid drop in liquidity itself is a concern and shows a reduction in the general activity of the system. If there is greater liquidity, the price is more correlated with the chain dynamics against external factors. A lower activity makes the price more susceptible to volatility at decline.» In simpler terms, and in response to the question raised in the title of the article, so that the price rises will be key A rebound in liquidity on-chain from Red Bitcoin.
This is because, when liquidity on-chain It is high, it means that there are more operations, greater demand and better market capacity to absorb purchases or sales, without causing sudden price movements.
A rebound in liquidity suggests that there is a real interest of investors and that There is sufficient capital to support a solid price increase.
In line with this diagnosis, the graph of Market Sensitivity (market sensitivity in Spanish) reinforces the idea that the behavior of the price of BTC is currently more influenced by internal factors than by global events. This indicator measures how much market movements of two types of forces depend: external factors (such as interest rates, regulations or geopolitical conflicts) and the factors on-chain (as network transactions or active wallets).
In the graph, the horizontal axis shows the sensitivity to external factors in the last 30 days, while the vertical axis reflects the weight of the factors on-chain. Each blue point represents a time measurement, and the largest circle indicates the current position.
As can be seen, the line is displaced towards the upper quadrant, indicating a greater dependence on the activity on-chain and a lower response to external events.
This pattern coincides with a low liquidity environment, in which the price action becomes more vulnerable to any variation within the network. In this context, A rebound in liquidity would not only reflect a recovery of investors’ interestbut would also provide the market with the solidity necessary to sustain a price increase.
Otherwise, if the liquidity does not recover, BTC will be more exposed to wide volatility. In that context, even good external news (such as a high fire in the Middle East) could have a limited effect if they are not accompanied by internal reactivation on the network.
Anyway, Swissblock specialists point out that «not everything is lost» and stand out: «Although we have had a sharp output of liquidity, the long -term upward structure remains intact while our risk signal (Risk off signal) Stay at 0 ”.
They also add that, although the liquidity conditions have deteriorated, The widest bullish structure remains firmas long as risk signals continue at low levels.
In fact, Willy Woo himself believes that «although BTC has entered the final phase of its upward market», it does not rule out that the currency created by Satoshi Nakamoto marks a new historical maximum (ATH) in the short term. Its projection is that the price of BTC will climb at $ 118,000 quickly if it exceeds $ 112,000.