Warren Buffett, founder of Berkshire Hathawayis one of the big investors and has its own index, the «Buffett indicator». It is currently in the 180%near the one we saw last year with the Carry Trade del Yen Japanese that brought one intense sales wave. Which allowed the rebound of S&P 500 last year. So analysts discuss whether or not this is apossible purchase signalaccording to Jessica Menton en Yahoo Finance.
The «buffet indicator» measures the relationship between the total value of the US stock market (through Wilshire 5000 Index) and the dollar value of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) United States. It has been at its lowest level since the beginning of September, even after a rebound that has triggered the actions in recent weeks.
Berkshire Hathaway’s 94 -year -old executive director, who will celebrate his Annual Meeting at Omaha, Nebraska, this weekendHe said that the «best individual measure to evaluate the situation of valuations» is the relationship between the value of US companies that quote on the stock market and the GDP of the country. The indicator launched a warning at the end of last year by shooting at a maximum historicalechoing similar signals sent during the Market peaks in 2021 And before the outbreak of the Puntocom bubble in 2000.
«This is a crucial indicator because it helps investors to know when to invest capital and buy shares,» he said Adam Sarhan, the Carker Investwho has been investing in actions of large technological ones. «There are reasons to continue worried about the World Trade War, but if Trump is not aggressive with tariffs, people will buy without stopping, with much more reasonable assessments now.»
The assessment metrics of all kinds have gained greater importance this year, since investors try to determine whether a sales wave driven by tariffs has cheaper actions in relation to their foundations. These calculations are complicated by the rebound of 12% of the S&P 500 since its April minimum, which leads the operators to ask whether to bet on an impulse that drives the index even more, or reinforce the coverage and bet on the decline for a possible fall. The index still accumulates a drop of almost 9% since its February record.
In addition to the unpredictable turns of the commercial war of President Donald Trump, investors are prepared for several more weeks of the results season and the Federal Reserve meeting next week as possible catalysts that could determine the trajectory of the shares.
On the other hand, the indicator remains above the levels it reached during the previous market minimums, including the Sales wave of the COVID-19 In early 2020, when it fell almost 100%. Other commonly used valuation indicators show a similar situation: the S&P 500for example, it is currently in 20.6 times projected profits, 8% less than at the beginning of the year, although even above the average of 10 years of 18.6 times.
Critics of the Buffett indicator argue that, among other things, the measure could ignore the effects of High interest rates. Increased financing costs can reduce companies and ballast the price of shares. Some strategists also argue that the assessment is a Poor tool To predict market movements, since assets can be kept cheap or expensive for a long time before correction.
That said, few investors would ignore a measure praised by Buffett, famous for buying at a low price. Investors expect the annual Berkshire meeting on Saturday, in part to obtain clues about whether Buffet has taken advantage of the company’s liquidity (whose last record, as reported, was from 321,000 million dollars) to take advantage of market offers.
It could be one of the latest meetings for Buffett, who informed the shareholders in the annual letter of the company earlier this year that «it will not spend much time before» a successor assumes the position of executive director, probably Greg ABEL, the Berkshire.
«Buffett has always been a long -term investor,» he said Scott Colyer, director ejecutivo de Advisors Asset Management. «It will be crucial to listen to what it says about the economy and if the lowest valuations really promoted it to invest all that cash in buying shares during the sales wave.»
Berkshire Hathaway It quotes down on Friday afternoon, although with a bullish gap, in the 803,777 dollars. 70 and 200 periods are maintained below the price, rhi ups at 59 points and MacD lines above the zero level.
The medium and long term resistance is found in the 807,920 dollars. Meanwhile, EI indicators are mostly bullish.