Jose Luis Cavaon US military capacity indicates a strong dependence on Chinese minerals. It states that “the tungsten used to manufacture the penetrators, 80% comes from China”, that “the gallium used to manufacture the GPS chips, 98% of the supply comes from China” and that “the germanium used to manufacture the infrared seekers, 60% comes from China”. For this reason, he speaks of “the paradox of Chinese supply,” since China indirectly helps manufacture American weapons even though it has apparently been harmed by the closure of the strait. He also remembers that China bought Iranian oil at a discount and has now had to replace it with “more expensive Canadian oil imports”, which leads him to affirm that “this is a cake” and “this is negotiated.”
The expert believes that the closure of the strait was planned. He points out that the United States first acted in Venezuela, where “Venezuelan oil flows to the United States,” compensating for the oil that would no longer arrive from Iran. He also considers that China anticipated it after “the bombings of June 2025”, at which time “they took their oil, gas and coal reserves to maximums.”
Among the beneficiaries he mentions Russiasince China will have to “diversify its energy purchases” and buy “Siberian liquefied natural gas”, in addition to benefiting from the fact that “the price of oil has risen”.
He also considers the United States to benefit, because Asian companies will have to “diversify supplies” and buy “liquefied natural gas from the United States,” increasing “the world’s energy dependence on the United States.” In addition, remember that «33% of the fertilizers exported in the world come from the Persian Gulf», which especially affects Asia and India and can favor «the purchase of American agricultural products.»
Regarding oil, he explains that the recent volatility is mainly due to “paper oil”, with cancellations of positions that have generated “a negative gamma environment.” In the medium term he believes that oil will “a sideways upward trend”.
Finally he states that “stock markets will most likely go up”highlighting that “stock markets are performing too well” despite the increase in global uncertainty.