Will there be an altseason soon? This is what analysts say

One of the most anticipated periods for cryptocurrency traders and investors is the so-called altseason, or altcoin season.

It is about the period in which alternative cryptocurrencies —everything that is not bitcoin (BTC)— widely outperforms bitcoin.

When the altseason arrives, the prices of dozens of tokens can multiply in a few days, generating profits that are difficult to achieve quickly if the money is placed only in bitcoin.

The logic behind this dynamic is simple: after a period in which bitcoin concentrates attention and capital, investors begin to rotate their profits towards smaller capitalization assets in search of more explosive returns. This flow of money into altcoins is what drives their prices almost simultaneously.

To measure if we are really in an altseason, the Blockchain Center organization developed a specific index. Their criteria is clear: if 75% of the top 50 cryptocurrencies—excluding stablecoins and asset-backed tokens like WBTC or stETH—outperform bitcoin in the last 90 days, the altcoin season is considered to have begun.

At the time of this writing, as can be seen in the following image, the index is below that threshold, which indicates that The market has not yet entered altseason.

Van de Poppe sees upside potential, but not everyone agrees

Although the data has not yet confirmed a massive rotation towards altcoins, some well-known traders in the ecosystem remain optimistic. Michaël van de Poppe, one of the most followed market analysts on the social network

“I have shared this information before, but there is still a lot of upside potential in altcoins. Depending on your perspective, there are big gains to be made in the long term, as the total altcoin market cap can rise by 20% to 40% before encountering resistance on a higher time frame,” the trader wrote.

Van de Poppe accompanies his writing with the following image showing the total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market excluding bitcoin and ether (ETH):

The publication generated debate. The responses to the post illustrate well the division of opinions that exists in the market at this time.

Analyst Jean Michel Libera questioned the hypothesis from a structural angle:

Visualizing upside potential ignores the growing fragmentation of capital across thousands of assets. Total market capitalization is a crude metric that masks the internal deterioration of older narratives. A 20-40% move in the aggregate typically translates into stagnation for most tokens as liquidity is concentrated in a few high-conviction sectors. Resistance is not just a line on a chart, but the absence of new buyers.

Jean Michel Libera, market analyst.

From the X Sterling Desk account, the view was more technical and cautious: “Altcoins always look attractive when the chart is close to support. The real test is whether they can maintain the structure once liquidity rotates back into bitcoin.”

A third commenter identified as Bloktavia provided a more tactical perspective: “Altcoin movements usually start when most people are still skeptical. That is the moment when positioning happens silently.

A debate that has been going on for months

The question about whether there will be an altseason is not new. At the beginning of January, NoticiasVE already reported that opinions were divided between analysts who see favorable technical signals – such as patterns similar to the 2016 and 2020 bottoms in the altcoins/bitcoin pair – and those who consider that the market is closer to a bearish cycle than to a generalized rotation towards altcoins.

What does seem clear is that, even among those who are optimistic, the expectation is not that of an indiscriminate altseason in which all tokens rise.

Liquidity is more selective than in previous cycles and narratives that concentrate capital – for example, artificial intelligence or real-world assets (RWA) – could lead any movement, while most projects remain laggards.

In this context, Van de Poppe’s post reflects moderate optimism: he sees room for growth in the total capitalization of altcoins, but he does not promise that this movement will reach all corners of the market equally.

For now, the Blockchain Center index remains the most objective arbiter. And his verdict is that The altseason hasn’t started yet.