European stock markets on the rise. The Euro Stoxx is about to touch 25-year levels at 4,200. It seems that 2025 will not be a bad year for European markets…
Yes, we have the EURO STOXX 50 looking for 4,200 points and rising in the calculation by 6%, the same as the Italian MIB (5.5%), in the 22 days (which are less obviously quoted) of this 2025. Of course The impact of Trump’s arrival, if any and if it is due to it, is being very positive. But we already know about the patriotism of the American people… In fact, despite the «strong smell» of protectionism and, therefore, the damage to certain companies, Americans like that and if they are asked to, out of a patriotic spirit, Everyone buys bags, even beyond their means, they are going to do it… However, and beyond this, there are still reasons to think that bags can continue to do well. In the case of Europe, the one that is having the hardest time is the CAC 40, as it depends so much on the luxury sector (which when it goes wrong accuses it too much and vice versa). The good part is that the CAC4 0 also just surpassed the 0.618% Fibonacci of the entire drop from 8,260 points. It is possibly the most lagging European index. If we analyze the chart of the Italian MIB, the technical aspect of the index invites us to buy; the same as the Euro Stoxx 50 and the DAX, which achieves a new historical maximum every day and also leaves bullish gaps. For its part, the graph that adjusts IBEX 35 dividends is half a percentage point from its historical highs. In short, I do not see on the horizon, except for very specific volatilities as a consequence, above all, of the publication of business results, any cause for concern, now that Trump’s inauguration has passed.
Unlike 2024, a year in which the Ibex 35 was the strongest along with the German DAX, this is not the case at the start of the year. While CAC, DAX and Euro Stoxx accumulate increases in these first weeks that exceed 5%, those of the Ibex remain at 2%. What is it due to?
The lower momentum of the Ibex may be due to the behavior of Telefónica or simply to the fact that only in the short term has the banking sector begun to stand out upwards (since it was not doing so previously). It is normal that the Ibex has been affected above all by Telefónica, but we must also think that the DAX, along with the Brazilian Bovespa, are the only indices whose graphs adjust dividends; We have already seen that the Spanish, if we put it on graphs with dividends, is practically at its historical highs, therefore it is very good even though, comparatively speaking, it may be that in the short term it is having a hard time keeping up with the others. All in all, I don’t see anything abnormal happening.
Analysis of the strongest banks on the Ibex
If we look at the graph of the European banking sector index, it has broken the resistance it had around 150, something that has not been seen since 2020, to maintain it and then continue reaching increasingly higher levels. In the Spanish context, it is worth highlighting this week that Unicaja is doing quite well. But above all I continue to think about three key values within the banking sector. Firstly, Banco Sabadell, because it is breaking through at the top (and in what way), despite the fact that right now with the subsequent exchange operation in the takeover bid with BBVA, Sabadell investors would lose money compared to what they had at the time. The chart of Banco Sabadell on the Ibex 35 is more or less exactly the same as that of the sector’s own index in Europe and, above all, we are beginning to see levels that have not been seen since 2010. That said, Sabadell seems like a very good entry option and, if it continues to improve, perhaps it could encourage the possibility of BBVA rethinking the exchange equations. Bankinter, the same: great strength when it comes to breaking resistance and every day it practically achieves a new all-time high. Finally, the one that can claim to be the jewel in the crown is Deutsche Bank, with a markedly upward trend. Furthermore, in the same way that, for example, BBVA and Banco Santander a priori have very limited upside potential, Deutsche Bank does not, because if we go back, on the one hand, we see that we are at levels that have not been seen since practically 2017, but above all right now it does not present significant resistance up to the zone of 30, so the route can be brutal. And here there is no fear that historical highs will be reached shortly: let’s think that Deutsche Bank has the historical highs at 90 and we are at 18.93. It seems to me to be the best option right now in the European banking context.
With Trump now in the White House, what American values could be penalized by his policies? Is anyone accusing him yet?
I have not observed that any of them have had very anomalous behavior, but by pure logic, and in anticipation of Trump complying with what he wants to do, which is to raise trade tariffs, with the main focus on China, it is something that, obviously, would harm export companies in the United States. In this sense, the short term may be compromised in big tech companies in the US, because the context of tariffs is going to «sour» a little and we could enter into a war in the supply chain, which is so necessary in terms of micro chips. , rare earths, etc., and in which the US depends on China.
On the other hand, where does Roberto Moro see potential considering the charts but also the current macropolitical environment?
I like, for example, Nike, but not because it is doing especially well, but because of opportunity cost. Nike has bounced off a key support level of 70.98 very strongly. It is a value to take into account due to opportunity cost and because it is always good to try to operate on supports and resistances. Another title that I like is Intel, a risky option, obviously, but once it has broken above what has seemed to be a lateral range with a ceiling at 20.90, a quite ambitious path opens up for it and I think it will reach to the area of 25. It also seems like a good option to me. Finally, in indices, perhaps those that have greater potential are also worth it and here the Italian MIB «takes the cake», which is also a good comparator option.