According to data on-chain, Bitcoin (BTC) is entering in 2025 the possible final phase of the current bullish cycle. This is indicated by a new report shared by the Cryptoquant data provider, made by the analyst Timo Oinonen.
Indicates the report that the year 2022 represented a clear distribution cycle for Bitcoin, which dragged its price at a period of crypto -winter. Then, From 2023 to 2024, The market began a new accumulation cycle that, with the arrival of 2025, shows indications of being reaching its peak.
«Bitcoin is now changing to a distribution cycle,» says the report. However, this does not mean that it has started a bearish market, but that its beginning could be coming this year.
It details the report that «Dow’s theory has been beneficial to understand the current mechanisms of the traditional and digital asset market.» According to this thesis, the movements of an asset go through two phases: accumulation and distribution.
The accumulation phase of an asset corresponds to a period in which its demand grows consistently, carrying its upward price. The distribution stage, on the other hand, is the opposite: a season in which the sales pressure increases, dragging its downward price.
«After a price increase of 130% in the last 12 months and a price that reached more than $ 100,000 (USD), Bitcoin is looking at a top of the cycle,» emphasizes the Oinonen report.
With the profits that have been making long -term investors, Bitcoin seems to be going from a phase of accumulation to distribution. Anywaysustained demand still maintains chance that the price will continue to rise.
Bitcoin has chances of getting into new record prices
«Despite the distribution cycle that is approximate, Bitcoin could still reach significantly higher feed price levels,» Oinonen mentions. There are several factors that show that the market is not overheated.
He argues that BTC’s financing rate is relatively low and comparable to the summer levels of 2024. In addition, it indicates that the market is far from being overpaid, and the structure supports a greater price discovery.
It is known as prices discovery at a period in which the quotation reaches new historical maximums. At the moment, the record that BTC has received was USD 109,300, a level registered two weeks ago, minutes before the presidential assumption of Donald Trump in the United States.
As a positive sign, the analyst distinguishes that Microstrategy (MSTR), the company famous for investing in BTC and being the one that has the most, continues to add the currency to its portfolio in 2025. «The MSTR purchase program reflects institutional demand and acts as a leading indicator of the underlying asset (Bitcoin) in itself,» he says.
«I would say that we are in the early phase of distribution, since new retail investors are entering,» said Ki Young Ju, the founder and CEO of Cryptoquant. According to Trump’s global promotional impact, he could extend this bullish rally for a couple more quarters. «
Trump has created a presidential team specialized in digital assets to evaluate its integration into the National Reserve. The group also in charge of other tasks, such as presenting regulatory proposals to strengthen the cryptocurrency industry.
As Cryptonotics reported, this generates expectations that the president meets his campaign promise to include Bitcoin in the National Reserve. In addition, a new committee has formed in the Senate dedicated to digital assets, preceded by legislator Cynthia Lummis, who argues that it is «urgent» to discuss in Congress the creation of a strategic BTC reserve.
The market «is not overheated and, under stable macroeconomic conditions, cryptocurrency has potential for greater growth,» said the Axel Anxel Adler JR analyst, showing agreement with this generalized thinking.
Something that validates this possibility is that purchases of funds quoted in the stock market (ETF) that invest in Bitcoin in the United States continue to grow. The month of January ended with more than USD 5,000 million tickets in these instruments, a figure that exceeded December.
Undray or inflate that, in case of a contribution of contribution, USD 87,999 are positioned as a “fair price” and lower supportaccording to the technical indicator of powers. However, for two months, the currency has maintained the area around USD 90,000 as its minimum in falls.