Dow Jones doubts before the GDP, the PCE and the Supreme Court’s decision on tariffs?

Foto del autor

By Jack Ferson

Dow Jones doubts before the GDP, the PCE and the Supreme Court's decision on tariffs?

Futures linked to the DOW JONES index fell 0.04% to 49,376.40 points, while those of the S&P 500 lost 0.01%, to 6,860.90 points. NASDAQ 100 futures are flat at 24,798.50 points.

Wall Street comes from a downward day yesterday Thursday in which the tension in the Middle East was noticeable, after the president of the United States, Donald Trump, threatened Iran with a military attack in the next ten days. The Dow Jones fell 0.54%, the S&P 500 fell 0.28% and the technology Nasdaq fell 0.31%.

So far this week, the S&P 500 is on track to record moderate gains, with an increase of 0.4% until Thursday’s close that allows it to remain in a draw for the year. The Nasdaq, with a strong technological component, is preparing to break a five-week streak of losses and accumulates an increase of 0.6%. However, The Dow Jones is headed for a loss of 0.2% in this period.

“We think the market is treading water right now, waiting for its next catalyst,” explains Paul Stanley, chief investment officer at Granite Bay Wealth Management, who points to the Supreme Court ruling or next week’s NVIDIA results as these catalysts. “The fact that the S&P 500 is stable this year, but the Nasdaq is down so far this year, suggests that market expansion continues, which is encouraging for investors”, he adds.

Please note that this same Friday The highly anticipated Supreme Court decision on the legality of Trump’s tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act could come. Most traders believe the stock market will react positively if the tariffs are removed, even with the expectation that the White House will use other means to reinstate them at a later time.

The Supreme Court does not disclose in advance the cases on which it will rule. If the ruling does not come out today, the next scheduled dates could be Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

But the day is also very intense in the macroeconomic section. Before the opening, investors will receive updated information on the state of the economy with the publication of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for the fourth quarter. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones forecast real GDP growth of 2.5%. The 4.4% advance in the third quarter far exceeded estimates.

Also published is the report of the December personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price indexwhich is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator. The headline reading is expected to show a 2.8% year-over-year advance, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones. The underlying PCE would have increased by 3% in the last 12 months.

This reference comes at a time when the Federal Reserve is divided between officials who care about supporting the labor market and those who care more about inflation. The pace of price increases has generally trended downward, but inflation still exceeds the central bank’s mandate of 2%.

In the business sphere, Dropbox shares are moving lower in the New York morning after the company announced yesterday after the closing a fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of 68 cents per share, narrowly beating the 67 cents per share anticipated by analysts. Revenue for the period was $636 million, beating Wall Street’s forecast of $629 million.

Mining company Newmont rises 2% after announcing adjusted earnings of $2.52 per share, beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $2.04 per share. The company also announced record free cash flow of $7.3 billion.

Akamai Technologies falls more than 8% after presenting disappointing first quarter forecasts. The cloud computing company sees first-quarter adjusted earnings between $1.50 and $1.67 per sharecompared to analysts’ consensus estimate of $1.75 per share.

The results season is now in its final stages and in general it is being quite solid, although there have been some unpleasant surprises. The market is now waiting for NVIDIA, the last of the Magnificent 7 left to present results. It will do so next February 25, and Analysts expect it to put revenues of $65.68 billion on the tablean earnings per share of $1.46 and a gross margin of 74.97%.

In raw materials markets, oil prices are taking a slight break after the increases in recent days, while traders continue to monitor the escalation of tension between the US and Iran. US West Texas oil futures fell 0.41% to $66.13 per barrel, while international benchmark Brent crude fell 0.38% to $71.38.

The euro falls today by 0.08% against the dollar, leaving the exchange rate at 1.1764 dollars for each single currency.

Deja un comentario