One of the messages of the European Central Bank (ECB) It considers that its monetary policy is «in a good time.» The growth in the Eurozone advances towards a level more in line with its usual capacity, the general inflation is stabilizing near the objective of 2% and the current interest rate is around what those responsible for the ECB consider as “neutral”; that is, neither expansive nor restrictive. In other words: there are no arguments to vary the course, which coincides with what was expected before the meeting. Until the September meeting, most investors in fixed income trusted a type cut before the end of the year, but that hope has practically faded. This explains the recent rebound of the profitability of the bonds and the appreciation of the euro against the US dollar. Taking this panorama into account, it seems that the bar for a short -term type drop is quite high.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the Reserva Federal (Fed) Follow a very different trajectory. As expected, he cut the types at 25 basic points and also pointed out that there will be new declines in the future. His main message was clear: «We want to avoid downward risks before it is too late, and we trust to achieve it.» That trust is based on its well -known Summary of Economic Projections, which does not foresee a significant increase in unemployment or a decline in GDP growth in 2026. The greatest challenge of Fed remains too persistent inflation. Therefore, the agency can only trust that the impact of tariffs on prices be limited and in which, with the passing of the months, these specific increases disappear, as too late within one year. To this is added an interannual increase in underlying inflation in the services sector of more than 3%. With this backdrop, the perspectives on interest rates in the USA. They are still uncertain, especially taking into account the evolution of inflation. Investors discount about four additional drops of 25 basic points each in the next twelve months. But considering that few expect a relevant slowdown in economic growth, that scenario could be excessively optimistic.
Finally, in Asia, the Japan Bank (BOJ) It maintains another different policy path by leaving its type of reference unchanged. However, in their last meeting more «restrictive» positions arose that defended a rise in types. It is something unusual that, in the past, has preceded new increases. Therefore, it would not surprise that the Boj’s Policy Council decided to raise the types at 25 basic points before the end of the year. In addition, the agency also announced its intention to start selling participations in real estate shares and values (ETF and J-Reits) that had accumulated during the phase of
quantitative expansion (QE). Of course, it will do it at such a moderate pace that it is unlikely that it has a significant impact on the markets.
Keys next week
He most expected data next week will be THE EMPLOYMENT REPORT IN THE US.which will be published on Friday. In recent months, work figures have shown some weakness, although without being worrisome. A fragile labor market could envive fears about economic growth; On the other hand, more solid data of the expected would soften the expectations of new types of types. For many investors, an intermediate result would be sufficient to consider it favorable.
The agenda also includes several relevant trusted surveys: on Monday the European Commission’s business survey will be published; On Tuesday, the consumer confidence survey of the Board Conference in the US.; And Wednesday, the Tankan quarterly survey in Japan. In addition, throughout the week (especially Wednesday and Friday) the final PMI will be known in different countries.
After the meetings of the main central banks, it may be a good time for investors to pause and readjust their portfolios. Volatility indices continue to mark low ranges and, although the appetite for risk is maintained, Deutsche Bank data indicates that many portfolios continue to maintain a moderate position in riskier assets, such as variable income.