With global markets showing signs of rotation towards more traditional sectors (such as commodities and value) in the face of technology and the AI rally, how are you adjusting your equity investment strategies and what implications do you see for diversified portfolios in 2026?
Carlos del Campo. From the point of view of liquid assets in equities, what we have obviously been doing is going lowering the riskthe weight in the cards of our clients, as a consequence of this greater demand in stock market multipliers. And taking advantage of that weight reduction in equities towards good monetary asset that reduces volatility from the wallet or towards alternative assets because in fixed income The declarations are also demanding.
In that rotation It seems that there has been in variable income what we have been doing has been exit assets that were highly dependent on monetary policysuch as listed real estate or small American companies, towards assets that we think have greater growth potential closely related to technology, but more from the point of view energetic where we think that the biggest bottleneck.
Inflation driven by intense investments in artificial intelligence is beginning to be identified as a structural risk for 2026. How does this phenomenon influence your macroeconomic vision and the allocation of assets, both liquid and illiquid?
Carlos del Campo. From the point of view of the public markets the significant increase that companies have announced in capexat the moment it is not moving, since not much time has passed, to the inflations. There is no overcapacity as there was at the moment in other bubbles. Yes, it is true that they can be generated inflation niches in specific sectorsFor example, semiconductors or in energy itself, which we mentioned before, are signing electricity supply agreements due to the need for immediacy that is somewhat higher than expected, but in general terms. We think that technology is going to be rather deflationary in the long term and that inflation is ultimately generated by central banks with expansionary monetary policies, as we have seen in the past, or by governments with excessive spending.
The truth is that right now We are in a moment of inflation where it is much more benign than what we have been seeing in recent years, but it still remains a focus of concern for the coming years.
Jose Cloquell In the field of illiquid assets Yes, it is true that there have been a series of sectors, especially in the field of software serviceswhich is related to services that in the end services is an important part of economic activity and all investment activity related to software, related to services that can have some disruption with artificial integration There are some sectors that may have consequences of somewhat exaggerated prices paid in the past. And there we are somewhat cautious.
Faced with a scenario in which mergers and acquisitions in Spain have been below expectations and with a somewhat limited primary securities market, do you think we are facing an opportunity or a risk for corporate investments and private capital?
Jose Cloquell In the area of private equity We believe that it really is a chance in the sense that, Carlos mentioned before, the public markets, the listed markets have had that evolution in upward valuations in 2024 and 2025; On the other hand, it is like the other side of the coin, those minor corporate transactionsalthough there has been some reactivation starting in the second half of 2025, what they have done is that the valuations in the unlisted market, in the private market, in a certain sense have remained somewhat stable. So that one divergence compared to the listed market, we do believe that it represents an opportunity to take advantage, above all, investment strategies in capital of companies with operational capabilities, to carry out or influence the operations of the companies which is where we believe it makes the most sense to be today.
With moderate but stable growth expected in Spain and Europe, and inflation gradually declining, how do you balance return expectations versus macro risks in selecting illiquid assets?
Jose Cloquell we are very demanding when it comes to planning and considering what returns we ask for on investments. Obviously what was experienced until 2021 and early 2022 with non-existent rates, today we have to have some higher return expectations that compensate for illiquidity and the term, which in the end are the two determining factors when investing illiquid assets.
What we do take into account is, in an environment where it is true that moderate growth and inflation/interest rate expectations are not rising, there may always be some bumps in the road and there may be accidents that they derail inflation and that monetary policy also takes a more restrictive bias; and in that sense, above all investments in the world of real assets such as infrastructure and real estate, which in some areas have very demanding valuations, we are very careful in assets that have few capabilities or few levers for value creation. And we believe that in this environment, because of what could happen with the interest rate structure, it makes more sense try to act in the area of developments or opportunistic investments.
There is a growing discussion about the importance of geographic diversification, such as greater exposure to emerging markets such as India versus traditional concentration in the US and Europe. Do you think global illiquid assets offer better risk-adjusted returns today?
Jose Cloquell It must be taken into account that, traditionally, investments in private equity and specifically the venture capital in emerging countriesit is true that the expectations of return and the demands that you have to put on these investments are greater, but it is also true that the resultstoday, in a certain sense they have not compensated the risk assumed until now. As countries evolve, the development of local capital markets will also help these return expectationsI’m not saying that they are older, but that they are at least more estimable and are more constant, more consistent.
That said, USA Today it continues to be the core part of the world of private capital and venture capital in particular. Approximately two-thirds of global venture capital is in the United States and it remains, both the United States and Europa, the areas where we believe we should bebut in the smaller and medium market segment, of companies that do not depend so much on IPOs, that do not depend so much on aggressive financing structures, but that there is the capacity to improve operations, improve operations, company margins and extract value through that means and not so much through financial engineering..
Carlos del Campo. We there, in the liquid worldWe always say that emerging countriesthat many Sometimes they are forgotten in the marketrepresent 60% of the world’s GDP, more than 75% of economic growth and are 80% of the population; and yet they only represent 11% of the global stock market valuation. This means that There is going to be a very significant flow effect in the coming years. Therefore it is true that geographies are fundamental because they higher volatilitybut that in general grow more in terms of earnings per share.
The fact that the dollar has also weakened liquid assets in the case of emerging countries is usually favorable, We have the raw materials cycle that seems to be reactivated. That is, one part of the portfolio in variable income, we do believe that they have to be therebut it is true that with his contained weight because it also has its risks and the market, above all, is much more developed and the quality of the companies can be found in the illiquid world, mainly in the United States and Europe.
In an environment with interest rates that could remain accommodative but with persistent geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties, what role do you think illiquid assets will play in protecting and enhancing clients’ real profitability in the long term?
Jose Cloquell That positioning on our side of illiquid assetsbut with a little more value generation capacity and not an asset that is fully rented, fully granted, an absolutely mature company, but rather capabilities to generate more value, especially in the face of the risk that some unexpected event could happen that will lead to inflation and rising interest rates.
But having said that, where we believe that there really are still areas of value generation and areas of expected returns that compensate for inflation and other factors, but above all inflation, is precisely in the world of illiquid assets.; Yes, in a world in which we try to avoid very large companies, smaller and medium-sized companies also in the real active world on that side, which is where we really believe that there will be the ability to demand returns that compensate for the risk of inflation.